The (hidden) Data / Exposure trade off

Taken to its most extreme , what you get when you combine two major characteristics of modern day communication -  namely, more data and higher ad avoidance - is a very curious paradox indeed : we are collecting more data to better target people - who are then going on to not see our ads !  

Now that is of course very extreme and said here only to convey the sense of the notion. To a lesser and perhaps less direct  degree though,  it's a not-inaccurate description of the marketplace today when you think about it. At a broad aggregate level , there is an invisible trade off between data and exposure happening out there. How the value added by more data offsets the value lost from fewer exposures is where the game is at today - and will increasingly be where it will be at going forward.

'Engagement'  (in all its forms -Social , Native and what have you) and 'efficiency' (i.e. less waste) are two of the ways we are responding today but that's just the tip of the icerberg. I believe data itself will need to be paid a LOT more attention to - not only to the answers they throw up but also to the questions we ought to be asking. It can - it must ! - start from the simpest basics of everyday data. For example, if  the 'Unique Views' on your video performance report is not truly that , i.e. not really unduplicated over the course of the campaign let alone across platforms , how reliable is 'Frequency Capping' ? If it is therefore not, then what is the unaccounted waste ? And so on. Brainware , the Human Touch if you will, is critical here if this has to be cracked.  

I touched upon this Data-Exposure trade off only in passing in my recent Campaign Middle East essay on Fragmentation. My point point here was that the 'problem' is not so much media fragmentation as ad avoidance which the fragmentation trend correlates with - though not necessarily in a causal way !  

Two empty boxes, one blank sheet - and several 'You Tube Stars' !

Resuming the work  on an exciting but very challenging project on integrating online and offline media planning - something that there isn't a whole lot of available knowledge to draw from -  I've decided on a formula to try and make some headway finally :  to start from the scratch of first principles

This after a couple of  false starts and  dead ends caused in no small part from the sheer overabundance of information that's out there. I've realized you need to create that mental space of stillness in the midst of all this movement to evaluate what exactly you're looking for, which bits if information cut it and which don't. 

So I am starting off now with nothing more than an end objective and two boxes (one each for online and offline) on a blank spreadsheet.The idea is to populate them with the information at hand , identify what's missing and then set about getting them. No guarantees it will work but I am cautiously optimistic ! It'll be my pleasure to report on a happy ending , though the ending itself will be obviously confidential :) 

Meanwhile the phenomenon of ''You Tube Stars' marches ahead. Here's a survey report that shows American teens ranking them ahead of 'mainsteam' celebs. But the whole point is that what constitues 'mainstream' itself is becoming more and more contentious !

Thanks for reading

Cheers

Questions : the next best thing to answers !

I just wrapped up a small project analyzing social media data on Ramadan TV programming in the region. (Ramadan , if you didn'tknow , is the holy Islamic month marked by a complete change in daily lifestyle and habits in Islamic societies. It's also the main / only seasonality in ME TV). Some of the findings were different from the public information available online. Now, the scale of the study was too small to base definite conclusions on one way or another. If anything , I'd discount it over the others.  But the moot point is that it threw up a couple of different perspectives or hypotheses to explore. 

And sometimes I think that's what's missing in our daily worklives amidst this deluge of information. It's often a lot of buzzwords and 'Have article, Will share' that completely substitues , instead of complement , primary research and the weighing of evidence. Metrics evolve but the fundamentals that those metrics are meant to measure remain valid irrespective of which era we operate in. The data era is about improving that , not erasing it. A data strategy is not the same as forwarding articles on data strategies ! :)

In  my area of TV and Video , these are some key 'elephant in the room' questions for our region that turn out to be more challenging than they appear 

1. Is there in fact a drop in linear / live TV consumption ?

2. If so , how much is it ?

3. Where is it going to specifically within on-demand  ?

(a) Catch up service on existing TV connections ? 

(b) Online streaming : You Tube ? Others ? 

(c) Online download : Torrent ? Others ?

4. Which of those are addresseable for advertising and marcom ?

5. What forms of communication are appropriate , efficient and effective ? 

   

What is a challenging ask anywhere in the world is compounded in our region by the absence of even basic data. So even something like 3(a) is not knowable without reliable estimates of Pay TV and IPTV penetration. Hopefully things will improve in the near future.

It's also up to each one of us to make a start by asking  !  

Going mobile

Hi, VERY late in the day but - belated new year greetings ! Thanks for being here.

The months since the last post were spent on a whole lot of the usual seasonal things both personal and professional that one does this time of year . One highlight was a vacation back home in India where I encountered first hand the tremendous strides that mobile is making there cutting right across geography and demographics. When I asked the domestic help at my parents' home how he was spending new year's eve , he told me he was watching a movie. Gang outing ? Nope. On his phone. Nice ! 

A snapshot of  the growth in mobile users between 2006-2012 in the top five markets.

Country           2006 (Mn.)          2012 (Mn.)         CAGR (% p.a.)

China                    461                     1,112                        16 %

India                      166                        865                        32 %

USA                       230                        303                          5 % 

Indonesia                 64                        282                         28 %

Russia                    151                        262                        10 %

This is from an interesting Financial Times report on 4G development in China. 

(click for a larger view)

Growth in mobile payments

A good update on mobile payments from Bloomberg Businessweek ( read here). Interesting if unsurprising to note the growth in  mobile payments over the last two years .

While these developments are more for 'people like us' - either in developed countries or urban smartphone owners in the rest of the world - mobile banking has in fact already had a significant impact on the lives of millions of  less privileged people in lesser developed societies like East Africa , Philippines , Bangladesh , India , etc.( Here's a great Economist report on the spectacular success of  M-PESA in Kenya). 

Reading the Businessweek report , I am very interested to see how m-commerce pans out in those societies. The mobile phone is already the most penetrated modern device there while banks are both severely underpenetrated and mostly unviable. In such a scenario , could the SIM card emerge as some sort of a debit card in the village , with the phone enabling payments for small purchases when ready cash is not at hand ? Will consumer goods companies engaged in extensive rural marketing programs,  like India's Hindustan Unilever in India for example, tap into the mobile ecosystem to build value for their consumers and themselves ? Maybe partner with Telecom companies on a sharing basis given the high volumes involved ? 

Interesting to watch this space from a mass marketing - not to mention the socio-economic - point of view.

Marketing online media products in under-penetrated markets

This Google Search India ad has been making a stir on social media. Lovely piece of storytelling , touching some real emotional chords and all nicely linked to - and selling ! - the product. Fine work.

Interesting to see this communication from Google. The huge and  very under-penetrated Indian market presents a dream growth opportunity they will tap into and educating current non-users is a good first step. 

I can see similar parallels for the MENA region , particularly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. There is especially much to be gained in KSA with its higher per capita purchasing power and relatively more developed infrastructure. While in markets like India and Egypt many , perhaps even most , non-users are from socioeconomic strata low enough to be permanently deprived of internet access (including due to illiteracy) , in KSA it would be more about habits and mindsets which can be actively addressed to unlock value. 

In all three cases , two points stand out.
1. Increasing mobile access including new,first time users bypassing the PC altogether.
2. Language. The case for Arabic is obvious enough but in India too vernacular content development will be critical to grow penetration.

Meanwhile , a report on the massive e-commerce growth in China. Incredible ! (Read here)

Too much of a 'good' thing ? DON'T skip ad !

Facebook introducing autoplay video is an interesting development (read here)

This has game changing potential for the industry. As COO Sheryl Sandberg says , in terms of audience sizethis could be like a Super Bowl every day !  It needs to be done right of course , both from user experience and advertising POV.

Personally I feel we may have taken permission marketing just a little too far , especially with video ad Opt Out's. The free internet began unwittingly during Web 1.0. It has since  gone on to become a one way street.

Efforts at monetization by charging for access have panned out unsurprisingly : 'quality' content  with high perceived value and scarcity, stuff like Business and Sports  , can be put behind a pay wall but in a limited way mostly. Where inroads have been made , hybrid, limited- free-access is the dominant mode.

As irreversible as the free internet process is ,  there's scope to extract  higher advertising value from all those eyeballs by easing off the self-imposed sanctions just a little bit. Would audiences really mind watching a 30 second advert before a You Tube video ? Or having a display ad take up half their Facebook screen for a minute? We know the probable answer. But a couple of things have to be in place.

First, 'perceived value' is the operative word.  Users need to be informed and reminded of the value provided to them for free. It's become a blind spot that's taken for granted. And they need to be told of the costs involved. And, yes, also reassured that it'll lead to an even better usage experience.

Which takes me to the second point. The wider industry has to get it right on their part too. Sites  should continue to improve the user experience in terms of features , minimize intrusiveness , maximize product relevance, optimize for access device etc all of which is simple from a technical point of view. Advertisers and agencies should maximize  ad 'quality' the best they can. 

Once the benefits are seen by all concerned - user, site and advertiser / agency - we'll find it to be a  much smoother  roll out than we may presume now. I suspect all this will start to happen soon enough.