Two empty boxes, one blank sheet - and several 'You Tube Stars' !

Resuming the work  on an exciting but very challenging project on integrating online and offline media planning - something that there isn't a whole lot of available knowledge to draw from -  I've decided on a formula to try and make some headway finally :  to start from the scratch of first principles

This after a couple of  false starts and  dead ends caused in no small part from the sheer overabundance of information that's out there. I've realized you need to create that mental space of stillness in the midst of all this movement to evaluate what exactly you're looking for, which bits if information cut it and which don't. 

So I am starting off now with nothing more than an end objective and two boxes (one each for online and offline) on a blank spreadsheet.The idea is to populate them with the information at hand , identify what's missing and then set about getting them. No guarantees it will work but I am cautiously optimistic ! It'll be my pleasure to report on a happy ending , though the ending itself will be obviously confidential :) 

Meanwhile the phenomenon of ''You Tube Stars' marches ahead. Here's a survey report that shows American teens ranking them ahead of 'mainsteam' celebs. But the whole point is that what constitues 'mainstream' itself is becoming more and more contentious !

Thanks for reading

Cheers

Questions : the next best thing to answers !

I just wrapped up a small project analyzing social media data on Ramadan TV programming in the region. (Ramadan , if you didn'tknow , is the holy Islamic month marked by a complete change in daily lifestyle and habits in Islamic societies. It's also the main / only seasonality in ME TV). Some of the findings were different from the public information available online. Now, the scale of the study was too small to base definite conclusions on one way or another. If anything , I'd discount it over the others.  But the moot point is that it threw up a couple of different perspectives or hypotheses to explore. 

And sometimes I think that's what's missing in our daily worklives amidst this deluge of information. It's often a lot of buzzwords and 'Have article, Will share' that completely substitues , instead of complement , primary research and the weighing of evidence. Metrics evolve but the fundamentals that those metrics are meant to measure remain valid irrespective of which era we operate in. The data era is about improving that , not erasing it. A data strategy is not the same as forwarding articles on data strategies ! :)

In  my area of TV and Video , these are some key 'elephant in the room' questions for our region that turn out to be more challenging than they appear 

1. Is there in fact a drop in linear / live TV consumption ?

2. If so , how much is it ?

3. Where is it going to specifically within on-demand  ?

(a) Catch up service on existing TV connections ? 

(b) Online streaming : You Tube ? Others ? 

(c) Online download : Torrent ? Others ?

4. Which of those are addresseable for advertising and marcom ?

5. What forms of communication are appropriate , efficient and effective ? 

   

What is a challenging ask anywhere in the world is compounded in our region by the absence of even basic data. So even something like 3(a) is not knowable without reliable estimates of Pay TV and IPTV penetration. Hopefully things will improve in the near future.

It's also up to each one of us to make a start by asking  !  

Marketing online media products in under-penetrated markets

This Google Search India ad has been making a stir on social media. Lovely piece of storytelling , touching some real emotional chords and all nicely linked to - and selling ! - the product. Fine work.

Interesting to see this communication from Google. The huge and  very under-penetrated Indian market presents a dream growth opportunity they will tap into and educating current non-users is a good first step. 

I can see similar parallels for the MENA region , particularly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. There is especially much to be gained in KSA with its higher per capita purchasing power and relatively more developed infrastructure. While in markets like India and Egypt many , perhaps even most , non-users are from socioeconomic strata low enough to be permanently deprived of internet access (including due to illiteracy) , in KSA it would be more about habits and mindsets which can be actively addressed to unlock value. 

In all three cases , two points stand out.
1. Increasing mobile access including new,first time users bypassing the PC altogether.
2. Language. The case for Arabic is obvious enough but in India too vernacular content development will be critical to grow penetration.

Meanwhile , a report on the massive e-commerce growth in China. Incredible ! (Read here)

Too much of a 'good' thing ? DON'T skip ad !

Facebook introducing autoplay video is an interesting development (read here)

This has game changing potential for the industry. As COO Sheryl Sandberg says , in terms of audience sizethis could be like a Super Bowl every day !  It needs to be done right of course , both from user experience and advertising POV.

Personally I feel we may have taken permission marketing just a little too far , especially with video ad Opt Out's. The free internet began unwittingly during Web 1.0. It has since  gone on to become a one way street.

Efforts at monetization by charging for access have panned out unsurprisingly : 'quality' content  with high perceived value and scarcity, stuff like Business and Sports  , can be put behind a pay wall but in a limited way mostly. Where inroads have been made , hybrid, limited- free-access is the dominant mode.

As irreversible as the free internet process is ,  there's scope to extract  higher advertising value from all those eyeballs by easing off the self-imposed sanctions just a little bit. Would audiences really mind watching a 30 second advert before a You Tube video ? Or having a display ad take up half their Facebook screen for a minute? We know the probable answer. But a couple of things have to be in place.

First, 'perceived value' is the operative word.  Users need to be informed and reminded of the value provided to them for free. It's become a blind spot that's taken for granted. And they need to be told of the costs involved. And, yes, also reassured that it'll lead to an even better usage experience.

Which takes me to the second point. The wider industry has to get it right on their part too. Sites  should continue to improve the user experience in terms of features , minimize intrusiveness , maximize product relevance, optimize for access device etc all of which is simple from a technical point of view. Advertisers and agencies should maximize  ad 'quality' the best they can. 

Once the benefits are seen by all concerned - user, site and advertiser / agency - we'll find it to be a  much smoother  roll out than we may presume now. I suspect all this will start to happen soon enough. 

Programmatic ad buying - and somewhat beyond !

An update on programmatic automated ad buying. (Read here)

Programmatic will eventually cover all  media buying including offline. The pace at which it gets there will vary by media type and geography but which way it is going should be quite clear to all by now. 

My two cents on our probable future ,  especially as related to TV media  :

1. Right now the sold inventory of media sellers offsets what's unsold (or at least, sufficiently offsets it to remain viable). But with increasing fragmentation over time, once average pricing drops below a critical floor, those still remaining in business will have to jump in. 

2. Given that more airtime inventory around the world remains unsold than sold , automated buying will be the proverbial supply that finds its own demand. What is missing now are the facilitators. But they'll arrive!

3. Yes, average ad prices will drop over time. Technology is a cost reducer, remember? The ecosystem as it is structured today will drop down the value chain. A few harbingers today: pressure on media advertising revenue, 'cord cutting' among Pay TV subscribers, lower agency margins ….

4. Faceless trading? The human element will never go away from media trading. But – and consistent with point 3 - it will certainly shrink. 

5. What we are talking about, in other words, is disruption on a global industry scale. Think music industry.

6. Creative destruction!  Of ‘the ecosystem as it is structured today’. Each part of it will rebuild around profitable core strengths built on ‘brainware’ muscle. I believe the line will be drawn between content, creative and strategy as leads and distribution, trading and data as support.

7. Players across varied fields within today’s structure will directly compete against one another. The main fight will be for talent and the biggest challenge for the  agency business going forward will lie on that front , particularly for the non-Creative marketing services (media, planning , market research)

As I said, just my two cents, a few points off the top of my head as I read the report. Will it pan out this way? I think so but hey who knows!  There could always be a Black Swan round the corner. And when? Nope, conveniently not falling for that one either ! But yes I do believe it will all look a lot different than it does today - 2023 will make 1963 seem like this morning - and it’ll be exciting!